Drought Outlook for the United States
In the November 2018 Climate Prediction Center update, it was determined that El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (~55-60% chance). The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. To read more, click here.
In the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook update covering November through February, existing drought conditions are expected to persist in the western United States including in significant portions of Oregon, Nevada, Utah and Colorado. However, there are no areas where drought development is predicted to occur in the conterminous US (drought is projected to develop along the western coast of Hawaii). It is projected that the rest of the area previously under drought will either improve or drought conditions in the area will be alleviated entirely. Additionally, it is preditcted that it is likely that the remaining drought conditions in Texas will be removed entirely. To view the last NOAA U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook map, click here.
The links below will direct you to information on La Niña, ENSO, the NOAA seasonal drought outlook, and other forecasts and models.
Additional Information and Data