Drought Outlook for the United States
In the August 2018 Climate Prediction Center update, it was determined that there is a ~60 percent chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September – November), increasing to ~70 percent during winter 2018-19. Most models predict ENSO-neutral to continue during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere summer with El Niño most likely to occur thereafter. To read more, click here.
In the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook update covering August through November, existing drought conditions are expected to persist in several areas throughout the country. However, there are very few areas where new drought development is likely to occur (Washington, Oregon, North Dakota, Minnesota and Puerto Rico). It is projected that the rest of the area previously under drought will either improve or drought conditions in the area will be alleviated entirely. To view the last NOAA U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook map, click here.
The links below will direct you to information on La Niña, ENSO, the NOAA seasonal drought outlook, and other forecasts and models.
Additional Information and Data